Skift Take
As weeks of protests escalate in Hong Kong and Beijing weighs its options, it’s not hard to imagine Hong Kong’s successful tourism industry becoming a shell of its former self. Though the conventional wisdom from region insiders is that Hong Kong will prevail, the form that it will take is anyone’s guess.
What if Hong Kong falls? As in lost forever. Or it becomes another mainland city like Shenzhen or Shanghai.
It's outside of the realm of possibility for many, but as the worst protests since the 1997 British handover rage on, it is still a question on people's minds, particularly those in travel. The unspoken worry as protests escalate in Hong Kong is that Beijing will lose patience, clamp down hard once-and-for-all, and the one-country, two-systems bill is no more.
Even as two days of violent protests at Hong Kong's airport calmed on Wednesday and flights resumed, it was not hard to think of hospitality and tourism companies re-thinking new investments in Hong Kong, or relocating some operations altogether to other Asian cities.
It's a worst-case scenario, and the common view is it won't come to fruition. For one, China’s understanding of its own power and influence has changed since, say, the crackdown at Tiananmen Square 30 years ago: “It is more powerful, more confident, and has an understanding of the role that prosperity plays in its stability — and of the role that Hong Kong plays in its prosperity,” a recent Economist story puts forth.
But in the short-term, there is no denying that things are incredibly tough — and tense — particularly in the tourism industry. According to the Hong Kong Tourism Board, early figures show a double-digit decline in arrivals during the second half of July.
The Travel Industry Council of Hong Kong (TIC), a member organization for travel agents, says that the number of inbound bookings from various overseas markets for July and August has dropped 50 percent compared with this time last year. This drop in arrivals is both from mainland tourists and those from overseas markets, and of course has a ripple effect across all of Hong Kong’s economy, from retail and restaurants to taxi drivers. Outbound bookings are also down 15 percent, simply because “people are just not in the mood for traveling,” said Alice Chan, executive director of the TIC.
Indeed tourism professionals are in a kind of nervous wait-and-see mode, unable to make long-term pronouncements of how the industry will fare next week or month, let alone next year. Many travel agents have been asked to take leave (some unpaid) due to scant work, Chan said, while some tour escorts and guides — who rely on commission rather than salary — are simply out of work. When asked if i
