Skift Take
The adage that U.S. presidential election years are bad for business may or may not hold true for 2020. Savvy travel advisors, however, may want to put extra effort into keeping clients confident and enthusiastic about upcoming travel plans.
There’s an old adage — and some data to support it — that U.S. presidential election years put a damper on leisure travel sales. With 2020 promising to be an especially bumpy ride through political division and uncertainty, could that hold true for the year ahead?
To get some perspective, Skift spoke to a variety of leading players in the retail travel industry, most of whom are cautiously optimistic that 2020 will not mirror any downturns seen in prior election years.
Election Year Impact
A survey released by Virtuoso earlier this year, which examined yearly sales trends among the consortium’s membership of luxury-focused travel advisors, reported that travel sales grew on average by 14.3 percent in the years before the last three presidential elections: 2007, 2011, and 2015.
By contrast, travel sales only grew on average by 2.9 percent during the election years of 2008, 2012, and 2016. The survey showed that even Virtuoso travel agencies based outside the U.S. may have been affected, with sales growing by 36.1 during pre-election years and 18.4 during the election years.
Why did the election years have a negative impact on sales? According to David Kolner, Virtuoso’s senior vice president of global sales, the uncertainty engendered by an upcoming election can cause spending hesitation among consumers, including those of high net worth.
“There’s a big correlation with the stock market, which can be volatile during an election year,” he said. “People look at what their portfolio is worth and how it might be affected by a change in administration and policies. In general, Virtuoso clients are going to travel no matter what, but there can be an impact on their willingness to book in advance or take longer vacations.”
Kolner said he was particularly surprised and somewhat puzzled by the survey’s indication that an American presidential election year affects sales for overseas travel advisors as well.
As yet, there is no indication that 2020 will follow the trend of the last three election years, Kolner added.
“We have
