Skift Take
Covid-19 will change the flying experience for a long time, as people take precautions to avoid getting sick. But it'll also change flying for another reason. Airlines are taking on considerable debt, and they'll need to cut costs as they try to repay it, at least until revenues improve.
As U.S. airlines navigate the Covid-19 pandemic, it is fashionable to write how the airport and cabin experience will change, in recovery and beyond. Most stories focus on health-related enhancements, such as masks, temperature checks, social distancing, and protection screens separating employees and passengers.
Undoubtedly, these elements will alter the flying airline experience in the short and medium term, but long term, it may be foolish to make predictions. In a rush to restore consumer confidence — and save businesses in distress — airlines have implemented almost every idea they could think of, some based on science, and some not. Eventually, they may streamline to focus on ideas endorsed by epidemiologists.
But another element may change the flying experience just as much. With so few passengers traveling, this is also an economic crisis — the worst in airline history — and travelers should expect airlines to make significant cuts to the passenger experience. They may have little choice, after adding billions in new debt, while pledging airplanes, engines, spare parts, gates and slot holdings as collateral. (Delta Air Lines said Wednesday it has raised more than $10 billion since March.)
Airlines won't compromise on safety, presumably, because they know cutting corners on maintenance is bad for business. But they will look everywhere else for savings, suggesting the (slightly elevated, by recent standards) airline experience travelers experience in 2019 is gone, probably for awhile.
The good news is it's not forever. Airlines are cyclical businesses, and airlines have shown they can rack up massive profits during flush times. When high-value travelers return en masse — those are people who buy a $3,000 transcontinental flight, or spend $9,000 for a jaunt to London — airlines again will increase standards and compete on product.
But as long as full-service U.S. carriers rely on short-haul leisure tr
