Skift Take
United Airlines executives are betting that structural changes on the international front mean it can emerge larger and stronger from the pandemic. But this won't occur until travelers return in significant numbers, something they don't expect for some months.
United Airlines cut hard and cut deep when the coronavirus pandemic hit a year ago. As the largest U.S. airline to China, it cut more flights earlier than any of its American competitors — something it continued as it became clear that the virus would upend life around the world.
The Chicago-based carrier maintains what can best be described as a realist view of the crisis a year on. Speaking during United's fourth quarter earnings call Thursday, CEO Scott Kirby told Wall Street analysts and investors not to fear, travelers will return but not to expect them back in significant numbers until sometime after June.
“We will, sometime this year, hit that [inflection] point,” Kirby said. "Then there'll be a very steep increase in demand." That recovery could see travel demand return to as much as 85 percent or 90 percent of 2019 levels, he added.
Leisure flyers will be back first, as they have throughout the pandemic. That burst will be driven by the pent-up demand — whether to visit family only seen on FaceTime or just to escape to the beach — that industry leaders repeatedly cite.
Corporate travelers will lag holidaygoers — maybe by a lot. United maintains its view that this critical business segment will take 18- to 24-months to recover, or unt
