What You Need to Know About U.S. Airlines Now in a World Turned Upside-Down


Skift Take

U.S. airlines were in a position of strength. And then the coronavirus crisis struck. Although no carrier has announced layoffs or has requested a government bailout, the days, weeks, and months ahead look rough.

It was supposed to be a routine JPMorgan investor conference. U.S. airline executives would assemble in New York City, describing a world of strong demand, constrained supply, falling oil prices, and a healthy U.S. economy. Then along came coronavirus. The JPMorgan event proceeded as planned on Tuesday, though held virtually amid corporate bans on employee travel. What executives actually described was a world completely upended by the virus scare: demand falling faster than even after 9/11, oil prices falling far faster than anyone could imagine, and a U.S. economy that now appears headed for recession. Delta was first to present. CEO Ed Bastian said net bookings (new bookings minus cancellations) had declined 25 percent to 30 percent, a drop that surely worsened a day later when President Trump announced a 30-day travel ban to Europe. As of March 10, the carrier said unit revenues for all of the first quarter would likely be down in the mid-to-high single digits. When the virus scare was confined to just China in mid-January, Delta’s first-quarter forecast saw total revenue per available seat mile holding steady year-over-year at worst. Providing more specifics, Delta said it filled 77 percent of its domestic seats during the first seven days of March. It expects the figure to be more like 65 percent to 70 percent for the full month, which would mean a roughly 20-point year-over-year decline. The percentage will likely be lower still following the Europe travel ban.

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Recall that after the Lehman Brothers financial crisis that began in late 2009, leisure demand held up rather well, compared to business travel anyway. In the current crisis, the demand collapse is near universal — leisure, business, domestic, international, short-haul, and long-haul. Delta did, however, make a few distinctions, noting that West Coast U.S. travel was more affected than the East Coast. Millennials, it added, were traveling more than seniors. Latin America, importantly, was holding up much better than Europe and especially Asia. In response, U.S. airlines, like most airlines worldwide, are responding to the crisis with actions like stepping up cleaning protocols, training workers to deal with ill passengers, relaxing ticket rules, reducing fares, easing revenue management controls, cutting capacity, grounding planes, deferring nonessential investments, susp