Who’s Still Crossing: Canada’s Holdout Travelers

Key Points

• Total Canadian visits to the U.S. fell 21% to ~16 million in 2025, with land arrivals dropping 30% versus 11% for air — a decline steep enough for Mexico to become the No. 1 U.S. source market at nearly 18 million arrivals.
• The pullback was concentrated among discretionary travelers: vacationers, tour groups, and friend-group trips shrank, while obligation-driven travel (family visits, business, and solo trips) held up and grew as a share of total visits.
• Impacts were highly uneven by state — New Jersey (-58%), Maine (-46%), and New York (largest raw loss, -30%) fell sharply, while Texas was the only state to grow (+3.8%); travelers also shifted toward private/family stays and away from hotels.

Summary

A new federal report shows that U.S. trade policies and political rhetoric drove a significant Canadian travel boycott in 2025, with about 16 million Canadians visiting the U.S. — down 21% year over year. Land arrivals took the hardest hit, falling 30% (versus an 11% dip in air travel), a drop severe enough to let Mexico overtake Canada as the U.S.'s No. 1 source market with nearly 18 million arrivals. However, the pullback was uneven: discretionary vacationers, tour groups, and friend-group travelers retreated sharply, while obligation-driven trips — family visits, business travel, and solo trips — proved far more resilient and grew as a share of total travel. Middle-class households continued to cross the border (median income actually rose 2% to about $80,158), spending slightly more per party ($2,497), with transportation costs surging 41%. State-level impacts varied widely: New Jersey (-58%), Maine (-46%), and New York (-30% in raw terms, the largest loss) declined steeply, while Texas was the sole state to post growth (+3.8%). Travelers also shifted toward private and family stays over hotels.