What Global Economists Can Learn From Atlas Air


Skift Take

Some of the pandemic's long-term economic effects are yet unknown. But one thing is certain: A consumer shift toward e-commerce accelerated and is most probably lasting. And air cargo companies are cashing in on the change.

Air cargo airline Atlas Air's billion-dollar quarter was more than just a bonanza for its shareholders. It illustrates the way global trade changed during the pandemic and continues to evolve. And it answers a more basic question: Will your holiday gifts arrive on time?

The short answer is no, they probably won't. Atlas, and other air shippers like it, are cashing in on a set of factors that no one saw coming early in the pandemic, but the sector can't supply the lift needed to keep the global supply chain humming.

The pandemic accelerated a structural shift in retail toward e-commerce. Populations stuck at home and prevented from shopping in grocery stores, malls, and other retail shops turned to e-commerce for daily necessities during lockdowns. And once those lockdowns ended, the habit stuck. Couple this with almost unprecedented savings among the world's middle classes, and the usual shipping lanes buckled.

And this is occurring as the global eco